Winning Elections For Dummies

 Republicans have a huge and clear advantage going into the 2024 election next year. It is no secret that the Biden Administration has had a rough few years, from the tragic withdrawal in Afghanistan, to the post-pandemic recovery, Putin’s war in Ukraine, along with record high inflation caused by the two prior examples, has brought Biden’s approval rating close to what the former president’s was during most of his term. Though it is debatable how much credit can be fairly given to Joe Biden, the general populous of the United States, however, has a tendency to lay all blame on the hands of whomever is leading the nation at the time. We see that with Jimmy Carter during the inflation of the 70’s, George Bush Sr. during the recession of the early 90’s, and Donald Trump during the onset of the pandemic. In all of these examples, the president had little to no power over these events, but the people still judge them for it nonetheless. Today, I would like to share my thoughts on the Republican chances of retaking the White House, and why it is that the GOP practically has it in the bag with any candidate now running. . . except for Donald Trump.

Now I am not insinuating that Trump cannot win in next year’s election, only that it would be an extremely difficult uphill battle compared to the rest of the competition for the Republican nomination. It is true that he currently holds a staggering lead against his challengers in the most recent pollings among the GOP, but in the final election it is not the party base that is going to elect him or anyone else president, it is going to be the moderates, the independents, and swing voters that will ultimately decide the outcome. And the majority of those voters do not want to see a rematch between Trump and Biden. Despite Biden’s polling, Trump’s record is nothing to place on a podium either. Unaffiliated voters and moderates alike have a more negative view on Trump thanks to the events of January 6th, and the slew of legal charges that range from retaining classified documents, to election fraud. Now I know that most Trump supporters and run-of-the-mill Republicans would say that all those allegations are overblown and falsified. I am not here to debate whether the legal woes of Trump are deserved or not, only that public perceptions of those allegations are not favorable, and will only serve as a stumbling block in the general election. If Republicans want someone who will win the middle ground, they need a fresh face that doesn’t carry the baggage that the former president brings with him.

Aside from electability issues, there are a couple other reasons Republicans may be hesitant in choosing Trump as their nominee. First is the fact that he would only be able to serve one more term in office. Why is that important? Because sitting presidents statistically have a better chance of winning a second term. Since the birth of this nation, only ten presidents have failed to be reelected; five in the last hundred years. Putting a new Republican president in office gives a better chance that the GOP could hold the White House four years longer than if Trump won. Also, the odds are more favorable that the opposing party would win after the previous president steps down, especially when that president has poor polling numbers. And the fact that Trump's numbers never reached fifty percent at their highest point during his presidency, suggests that if he were to win a second term, a Democrat would most likely take his place in 2028. In short, if Republicans want to control the Executive Branch for a longer period of time, a new nominee is a better bet. 

The second reason stems from the sheer quantity of Trump’s legal battles which will carry over during a second term. Executive privilege only goes so far, one only has to look to Richard Nixon or Bill Clinton to see the problems that can occur even for a sitting president. The struggles of today will not end with Trump’s temporary retaking of the White House, and we can ill afford a distracted leader as we are still fighting back from the edge of recession and staving off World War III. We need someone who can devote all of their attention to the challenges of today without being over burdened with personal matters. Again, I am not stating the worthiness of the allegations, only that they exist and will continue to exist with Trump in office.

Now, if someone else were to win the Republican nomination, the situation would become far easier for the elephants in the room. They would have a president who could be reelected and hold the White House until 2032. They would be unhindered by excessive legal battles, and poised to come in when the economy swings up again. In all honesty, I believe any of the current GOP candidates could handily win in 2024, but among them, I’m quite sure Ron DeSantis would be the most likely to overtake Trump and win the nomination. DeSantis has gained a lot of attention with the “Culture War” that he and many others claim is happening in media, education and society at large. There are many right-leaning independents that have latched on to his message, and I believe he would easily take the White House if elected. Meanwhile, Vivek Ramaswamy is a rising star among the conservative field, followed by Governor Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Senator Tim Scott, with the other contenders struggling for a single percentage point. 

It is my opinion that the best chance Biden has on clenching a second term is if he goes up against Trump again. I feel strongly that Biden would lose against DeSantis, Ramaswamy, and even Mike Pence. Personally, I have gained a lot of respect for the former vice president since he showed his colors during the Jan. 6th attack. Pence understands the rule of law more than many who wave the phrase like a banner when it suits them, only to later tuck it away like a dirty secret. However, I feel it is unlikely that Pence will have a realistic shot for the presidency. Too many on the right feel Pence betrayed then President Trump, and in turn the GOP, and in turn, America, Jesus, and backyard barbecues on the 4th of July. Be that as it may, the Republican primaries are shaping up to be an interesting ride. I only hope that ride doesn’t take the country over a cliff.